Sunday February 12, 2:20 PM
Five years on, Thai PM faces calls to go
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's charismatic Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra once basked in the adulation of the middle
class. But on Saturday, they marched in the tens of thousands
in a bid to force him out.
"I thought he was great. But one man with too much power is
not good for the country," said shopkeeper Achana Kongyingyong,
59, waving a small national flag as 20,000 protesters chanted
"Thaksin, get out!" in central Bangkok.
A year after winning a second historic election landslide,
the billionaire self-styled "CEO premier" has seen his
popularity wane among middle-class Thais fed up with corruption
scandals, crony capitalism and his autocratic tendencies.
Last month's tax-free, $1.9 billion (1 billion pound) sale
of his family's stake in Shin Corp, the telecoms firm he
founded, to a Singaporean state investment firm was the last
straw for Achana.
"His gang is getting richer, but for small businesses it
gets worse. People don't have money," said Achana, who runs a
small clothing shop in Bangkok.
Ironically, the Shin sale, the biggest foreign buyout in
Thai history, was intended in part to remove the conflict of
interest cloud hanging over his leadership.
Instead, the deal, which Thaksin insists is legal, has
angered ordinary taxpayers, triggered a probe by securities
regulators and a signature campaign to seek his impeachment.
Academics say Thaksin will be lucky to see out the year.
"The powerful forces against him are increasingly
broad-based, and they will not stop," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a
Chulalongkorn University lecturer, wrote in a commentary.
"Thaksin would be fortunate to be in power by the end of
this year, let alone the conclusion of his second term."
SAFE FOR NOW
A new coalition -- the People's Network for Democracy --
aims to broaden the attack on Thaksin, led until now by
friend-turned-foe Sondhi Limthongkul whose tales of abuses of
power drew thousands to his campaign rallies.
But analysts, and even the opposition Democrat Party, say
Thaksin appears safe for now, and could win another, albeit
smaller, mandate if he called a snap election.
They point to his rural base built on handouts and soft
loans to farmers and villages in the countryside where 70
percent of Thais live and where the Bangkok protests have
barely registered.
"We can sit here and criticise, but that won't wash with
the great unwashed," said Democrat MP Korn Chatikavanij, a
former president of JPMorgan in Thailand.
"My view is that, regardless of his power base, he does
need to reduce tension in Bangkok, but I don't see him
resigning unless something bad comes out of the investigation."
The ruling Thai Rak Thai Party (Thais Love Thais), which
swept to power in 2001 on Thaksin's promises of cheap health
care and a stronger economy, has rallied around its leader
after two cabinet ministers resigned last weekend.
Thaksin has refused to quit, calling his critics a "few
worthless" people. But he offered a concession only hours
before Saturday's rally, proposing a referendum in April on the
1997 "People's Constitution".
Opponents say Thaksin, who scooped up 377 of 500
parliamentary seats last year to become the first elected prime
minister in Thailand's coup-prone history to win a second
consecutive term, has worked the constitution to his advantage
to cement an unprecedented grip on power.
But analysts doubt the referendum will kick off serious
political reforms.
"It's aimed more at the protests, but I don't think it will
work. The government still has no clear idea how to counter
this movement," said political commentator Sompop Manarungsan.
Supavud Saicheua, an economist at Phatra Securities, said
an unintended victim of the current political uncertainty could
be Thaksin's policy of liberalising foreign investment and
trade.
The $855 million partial listing of state power utility
EGAT, blocked late last year by a court injunction, suffered a
further blow last week when its chairman resigned, citing
concerns about a sell off to foreigners.
Bangkok's metro operator also shelved a $147 million share
listing last week, citing "political uncertainties" which had
affected investor confidence.
And Thaksin has said Bangkok may back out of free trade
talks with the United States, once touted as a key economic
plank, after the latest negotiations drew fierce protests in
Thailand.
"Opening up to foreigners will carry too large a political
cost for a government already perceived as being overwhelmed by
the interests of big business," Supavud wrote in a report.
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