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Sunday February 12, 2:20 PM

Five years on, Thai PM faces calls to go

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's charismatic Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra once basked in the adulation of the middle class. But on Saturday, they marched in the tens of thousands in a bid to force him out.

"I thought he was great. But one man with too much power is not good for the country," said shopkeeper Achana Kongyingyong, 59, waving a small national flag as 20,000 protesters chanted "Thaksin, get out!" in central Bangkok.

A year after winning a second historic election landslide, the billionaire self-styled "CEO premier" has seen his popularity wane among middle-class Thais fed up with corruption scandals, crony capitalism and his autocratic tendencies.

Last month's tax-free, $1.9 billion (1 billion pound) sale of his family's stake in Shin Corp, the telecoms firm he founded, to a Singaporean state investment firm was the last straw for Achana.

"His gang is getting richer, but for small businesses it gets worse. People don't have money," said Achana, who runs a small clothing shop in Bangkok.

Ironically, the Shin sale, the biggest foreign buyout in Thai history, was intended in part to remove the conflict of interest cloud hanging over his leadership.

Instead, the deal, which Thaksin insists is legal, has angered ordinary taxpayers, triggered a probe by securities regulators and a signature campaign to seek his impeachment.

Academics say Thaksin will be lucky to see out the year.

"The powerful forces against him are increasingly broad-based, and they will not stop," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Chulalongkorn University lecturer, wrote in a commentary.

"Thaksin would be fortunate to be in power by the end of this year, let alone the conclusion of his second term."

SAFE FOR NOW

A new coalition -- the People's Network for Democracy -- aims to broaden the attack on Thaksin, led until now by friend-turned-foe Sondhi Limthongkul whose tales of abuses of power drew thousands to his campaign rallies.

But analysts, and even the opposition Democrat Party, say Thaksin appears safe for now, and could win another, albeit smaller, mandate if he called a snap election.

They point to his rural base built on handouts and soft loans to farmers and villages in the countryside where 70 percent of Thais live and where the Bangkok protests have barely registered.

"We can sit here and criticise, but that won't wash with the great unwashed," said Democrat MP Korn Chatikavanij, a former president of JPMorgan in Thailand.

"My view is that, regardless of his power base, he does need to reduce tension in Bangkok, but I don't see him resigning unless something bad comes out of the investigation."

The ruling Thai Rak Thai Party (Thais Love Thais), which swept to power in 2001 on Thaksin's promises of cheap health care and a stronger economy, has rallied around its leader after two cabinet ministers resigned last weekend.

Thaksin has refused to quit, calling his critics a "few worthless" people. But he offered a concession only hours before Saturday's rally, proposing a referendum in April on the 1997 "People's Constitution".

Opponents say Thaksin, who scooped up 377 of 500 parliamentary seats last year to become the first elected prime minister in Thailand's coup-prone history to win a second consecutive term, has worked the constitution to his advantage to cement an unprecedented grip on power.

But analysts doubt the referendum will kick off serious political reforms.

"It's aimed more at the protests, but I don't think it will work. The government still has no clear idea how to counter this movement," said political commentator Sompop Manarungsan.

Supavud Saicheua, an economist at Phatra Securities, said an unintended victim of the current political uncertainty could be Thaksin's policy of liberalising foreign investment and trade.

The $855 million partial listing of state power utility EGAT, blocked late last year by a court injunction, suffered a further blow last week when its chairman resigned, citing concerns about a sell off to foreigners.

Bangkok's metro operator also shelved a $147 million share listing last week, citing "political uncertainties" which had affected investor confidence.

And Thaksin has said Bangkok may back out of free trade talks with the United States, once touted as a key economic plank, after the latest negotiations drew fierce protests in Thailand.

"Opening up to foreigners will carry too large a political cost for a government already perceived as being overwhelmed by the interests of big business," Supavud wrote in a report.

 


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