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Friday February 16, 7:54 PM

Base metals pause but nickel in spotlight

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Base metals prices paused as the market took stock after the recent rally and ahead of holidays in China and the United States, but traders said nickel might test $40,000 a tonne later on Friday.

Nickel has been propelled this week to a new record high of $39,350 by news that available stocks in London Metal Exchange Warehouses are less than half a day's global consumption.

Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange by 1130 GMT was at $39,000/39,300, from Thursday's $39,150 close.

The metals has risen by around 15 percent this year and by more than 60 percent since January 2006 on jitters about scarce supplies and strong demand from stainless steel mills. Around two-thirds of nickel output is used for stainless steel.

"There is every chance nickel could build up enough momentum to have a go at $40,000. The funds have been chasing it higher," a trader said.

"But it could turn out to be a very quiet day ... The market needs a breather and there are holidays next week."

A Lunar New Year holiday in China next week and the Presidents' Day holiday in the United States on Monday could curb activity, traders said.

However, in the long term analysts expected nickel prices and other base metals to fall back.

"For most industrial metals the prognosis isn't particualrly wonderful," said Peter Dixon, analyst at Commerzbank.

"There is sufficient demand out there to mean nickel may not take the same hit as some of the others."

TIN PROBE

Tin was higher at $13,250/13,350 a tonne from $13,000 on Thursday, when it hit a new record high of $13,200.

Prices this year have been boosted by concerns about supply from Indonesia, where most of PT Koba Tin's furnaces were shut down by police following a probe into alleged illegal mining.

Talk on Friday that Indonesia's PT Timah might have to postpone shipments helped prices higher. But PT Timah said there were no problems with shipments and that the company was working to complete documents needed for export.

"It's only an administrative delay," a trader said. "But it's enough to spook the market."

Aluminium slipped to $2,797/2,802 a tonne from $2,815 on Thursday after the world's biggest bauxite exporter, Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinee (CBG), said it had restarted mining and deliveries to Guinea's Kamsar port.

CBG normally produces just over 14 million tonnes of wet bauxite a year and exports some 13 million tonnes of dried bauxite. Guinea is the world's largest bauxite miner with annual output of 20 million tonnes.

Copper was steady at $5,840/5,855 a tonne after hitting a five-week high of $5,935 on Thursday.

Supporting prices was a dominant position holding 50 to 80 percent of available -- on warrant -- stock in LME warehouses, about 102,000 to 162,000 tonnes.

"There are signs of a squeeze in the nearby copper market ... The aim is probably to support prices," Sempra Metals said in a research note.

Also underpinning copper prices were expectations that Chinese demand after the holiday next week was likely to pick up as the country's State Reserves Bureau started to replenish its depleted stocks.

"There is also speculation that a few Chinese smelters may be intending to use the New Year holday as an opportunity to begin maintenance shutdowns, further intensifying import requirements," Standard Bank said in a research note.

Zinc slid to $3,390/3,405 a tonne from $3,430 on Thursday and lead was little changed at $1,755/1,765 from $1,750.

 


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