Monday April 30, 6:32 PM
LME metals steady in thin holiday trade, eyes strike
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - Base metals were seen trading
sideways on Monday, underpinned by the announcement that
Peruvian miners would begin a nationwide strike from midnight on
Sunday, analysts and dealers said.
London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for delivery in three
months shed $15 from the previous session's close and was
indicated at $7,735/7,750 by 0951 GMT.
Prices were seen steady as buyers wanted to keep them high
for valuation purposes on the last day of the month before more
money is allocated to metals at the start of May.
"Things will be a bit more quiet due to the holidays,"
analyst Stephen Briggs at Societe Generale Corporate and
Investment Bank said.
Volumes were thin with Japanese markets closed on Monday,
Thursday and Friday and ahead of European holidays for May Day
on May 1. Also, Shanghai will be closed for a week from Tuesday
for the May Golden Week holidays.
Uncertainty over the duration of the Peruvian strike
supported prices, though most of the potential impact had
already been factored in.
"Unless they are out for three months or something and it
has a serious impact on production it doesn't really upset the
markets too much," an LME trader said.
Peru's largest miners' union rejected a last-minute
government proposal to avert a nationwide strike, and said an
indefinite walkout would begin at midnight on Sunday (0500 GMT).
Peru is the world's third largest copper and zinc producer
[ID:nN29368746].
DEMAND IN CHINA
A Macquarie Bank report said slowing demand in China could
cap metals prices.
"With non-Chinese demand growth still slowing and with
the prospect of weaker Chinese demand hitting markets
in the current quarter, there may be some short-term
weakening in metal prices, particularly in copper and
aluminium in the short term," the report said.
But UBS said in a report strong global consumption would
keep aluminium prices firm over the next few years, predicting
an average cash price of $2,866 a tonne (130 cents per
pound) in 2007, rising to $3,086 (140) in 2008.
Three-month aluminium was at $2,836/2,840 versus
Friday's $2,854.
"We expect stronger prices into 2008 as opposed to
consensus which forecasts lower prices," UBS said, pointing to
inflationary pressures from both power and the raw material
bauxite, which would lift marginal costs within the industry.
In industry news, an Australian court ruled against a
redevelopment by Swiss-based Xstrata Plc of the giant
McArthur River zinc mine after a challenge by local landowners.
The mine yields 320,000 tonnes annually of lead and zinc in
bulk concentrate. [ID:nSYD154601]
"This heightens the risk of a mine closure," Briggs said.
Lead was at $2,000/2,020 against $2,002 and zinc
was firm at $3,680/3,700 versus Friday's $3,675.
Signs of cutbacks in stainless steel production and Brazil's
CVRD's decision to speed up its Goro project
weighed on nickel , down $150 to $48,350/48,550.
"Nickel is going to be wild... stainless steel is extremely
cyclical and we are going to see a big drop in the stainless
steel cycle," Briggs said.
"The market doesn't seem to care at the moment but on the
day it does -- nickel can drop $10,000."
Tin was up 1.1 percent at $13,350/13,450.
By 0958 GMT METALS PRICES:
Metal Last Net Change Pct Move
LME Cu 7740.00 -10.00 -0.13
SHFE Cu* 70990.00 2730.00 +4.00
LME Alum 2836.00 -18.00 -0.63
SHFE Alu* 20250.00 210.00 +1.05
COMEX Cu** 352.55 1.10 +0.31
LME Zinc 3680.00 5.00 +0.14
LME Nickel 48350.00 -150.00 -0.31
LME Lead 2000.00 -2.00 -0.10
LME Tin 13350.00 150.00 +1.14
Change so far in 2007
Metal Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
LME Cu 7740.00 6330.00 +22.27
SHFE Cu* 70990.00 60080.00 +18.16
LME Alum 2836.00 2805.00 +1.11
SHFE Alu* 20250.00 20550.00 -1.46
COMEX Cu** 352.55 287.10 +22.80
LME Zinc 3680.00 4230.00 -13.00
LME Nickel 48350.00 33325.00 +45.09
LME Lead 2000.00 1670.00 +19.76
LME Tin 13350.00 11510.00 +15.99
* 3rd contract months for SHFE copper and aluminium
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
(Additional reporting by Nick Trevethan in Singapore)
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