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Monday April 30, 6:32 PM

LME metals steady in thin holiday trade, eyes strike

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - Base metals were seen trading sideways on Monday, underpinned by the announcement that Peruvian miners would begin a nationwide strike from midnight on Sunday, analysts and dealers said.

London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for delivery in three months shed $15 from the previous session's close and was indicated at $7,735/7,750 by 0951 GMT.

Prices were seen steady as buyers wanted to keep them high for valuation purposes on the last day of the month before more money is allocated to metals at the start of May.

"Things will be a bit more quiet due to the holidays," analyst Stephen Briggs at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Bank said.

Volumes were thin with Japanese markets closed on Monday, Thursday and Friday and ahead of European holidays for May Day on May 1. Also, Shanghai will be closed for a week from Tuesday for the May Golden Week holidays.

Uncertainty over the duration of the Peruvian strike supported prices, though most of the potential impact had already been factored in.

"Unless they are out for three months or something and it has a serious impact on production it doesn't really upset the markets too much," an LME trader said.

Peru's largest miners' union rejected a last-minute government proposal to avert a nationwide strike, and said an indefinite walkout would begin at midnight on Sunday (0500 GMT).

Peru is the world's third largest copper and zinc producer [ID:nN29368746].

DEMAND IN CHINA

A Macquarie Bank report said slowing demand in China could cap metals prices.

"With non-Chinese demand growth still slowing and with the prospect of weaker Chinese demand hitting markets in the current quarter, there may be some short-term weakening in metal prices, particularly in copper and aluminium in the short term," the report said.

But UBS said in a report strong global consumption would keep aluminium prices firm over the next few years, predicting an average cash price of $2,866 a tonne (130 cents per pound) in 2007, rising to $3,086 (140) in 2008.

Three-month aluminium was at $2,836/2,840 versus Friday's $2,854.

"We expect stronger prices into 2008 as opposed to consensus which forecasts lower prices," UBS said, pointing to inflationary pressures from both power and the raw material bauxite, which would lift marginal costs within the industry.

In industry news, an Australian court ruled against a redevelopment by Swiss-based Xstrata Plc of the giant McArthur River zinc mine after a challenge by local landowners.

The mine yields 320,000 tonnes annually of lead and zinc in bulk concentrate. [ID:nSYD154601]

"This heightens the risk of a mine closure," Briggs said.

Lead was at $2,000/2,020 against $2,002 and zinc was firm at $3,680/3,700 versus Friday's $3,675.

Signs of cutbacks in stainless steel production and Brazil's CVRD's decision to speed up its Goro project weighed on nickel , down $150 to $48,350/48,550.

"Nickel is going to be wild... stainless steel is extremely cyclical and we are going to see a big drop in the stainless steel cycle," Briggs said.

"The market doesn't seem to care at the moment but on the day it does -- nickel can drop $10,000."

Tin was up 1.1 percent at $13,350/13,450.

By 0958 GMT METALS PRICES:

Metal             Last     Net Change    Pct Move
 LME Cu         7740.00         -10.00       -0.13
 SHFE Cu*      70990.00       2730.00       +4.00
 LME Alum       2836.00        -18.00       -0.63
 SHFE Alu*     20250.00        210.00       +1.05
 COMEX Cu**      352.55          1.10       +0.31
 LME Zinc       3680.00          5.00       +0.14
 LME Nickel    48350.00       -150.00       -0.31
 LME Lead       2000.00         -2.00       -0.10
 LME Tin       13350.00        150.00       +1.14
 Change so far in 2007
 Metal       Latest bid  End prev year    Pct Move
 LME Cu         7740.00        6330.00      +22.27
 SHFE Cu*      70990.00       60080.00      +18.16
 LME Alum       2836.00        2805.00       +1.11
 SHFE Alu*     20250.00       20550.00       -1.46
 COMEX Cu**      352.55         287.10      +22.80
 LME Zinc       3680.00        4230.00      -13.00
 LME Nickel    48350.00       33325.00      +45.09
 LME Lead       2000.00        1670.00      +19.76
 LME Tin        13350.00      11510.00      +15.99
* 3rd contract months for SHFE copper and aluminium
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
 (Additional reporting by Nick Trevethan in Singapore)

 


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