Saturday May 26, 4:41 AM
Lead at high, copper bounces but prospects weak
LONDON, May 25 (Reuters) - Lead ended at a new high on
supply fears and copper rebounded on Friday, but analysts think
the overall trend of rising copper stocks and lower demand over
coming months could pressure prices down further.
London Metal Exchange lead closed at a new record
high of $2,220 a tonne, up 5.2 percent or $110.
The metal was boosted by data from the International Lead
and Zinc Study Group which showed a global deficit of 38,000
tonnes in the January-March period.
Also, traders said lead exports from the Australian port of
Esperance could see further delays as more soil testing could be
required. Exports were suspended in March due to bird deaths,
leaving 9,000 tonnes of lead for exports stranded at the port.
Copper for three-month delivery closed up 2.9 percent
or $200 at $7,200 after touching an eight-week low of $6,952 in
the previous session.
That is a loss of more than 15 percent since the metal hit
an 11-month high of $8,335 on May 4.
In New York, analysts said they thought copper futures may
have ended their weeks-long sell-off on Friday when early
bargain hunting near two-month lows turned into a strong
short-cover rally that eventually led to new buying.
Copper for July delivery closed about 4.40 percent
stronger and held those gains in after-hours electronic trade.
July ended the floor session 14.00 cents higher at $3.3205 a lb
on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division.
Overnight, July copper slid to $3.1650, its cheapest level
since April 2, then rose to a high at $3.3225 a lb.
The bounce in metal prices after Thursday's broader sell-off
also pushed London-listed mining shares higher.
Rio Tinto , Vedanta and Anglo American
gained more than 1 percent and were found amongst the 10
largest gainers on the FTSE 100 index. [.PG.FTSE]
"The market was concerned there would be another thumping
rise in Shanghai stocks and there wasn't, LME stock also fell,"
said Nick Moore, analyst at ABN AMRO.
"But I think it's temporary. Base metals can look forward to
a summer of discontent, a period in which demand historically is
weak, coinciding very nicely with a rising supply curve."
Stocks of copper monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange
fell to 99,027 tonnes this week from 99,556 tonnes. LME
warehouses saw stocks fall 1,975 tonnes on Friday to 134,125.
But overall Shanghai inventories are up this year and that,
coupled with strong Chinese imports, has led many analysts to
conclude that demand from the world's top consumer could slow.
SUPPLY FEARS
Canada's Ivernia shut down its Magellan lead mine
and declared force majeure on shipments after exports from the
port of Esperance were stopped on March 12 following the death
of some 4,000 birds, possibly caused by lead poisoning.
"Lead is hitting fresh highs which always gives the
momentum/system guys a bit of courage and the Esperance news
wasn't exactly bearish," analyst David Thurtell at BNP Paribas
said.
Commodity Trading Advisors and black box traders might push
the metal higher given the break of resistance at the old high
of $2,216, he said.
The introduction of a 10 percent tax on Chinese exports of
unwrought refined lead from June 1 also supported prices as it
could sharply cut supplies from the world's biggest producer.
Aluminium traded up at $2,792 from $2,755 on
Thursday. The market is watching the large number of outstanding
call option contracts -- around 50,000, or more than one million
tonnes -- to buy aluminium at between $2,900 an $3,400 a tonne.
Nickel gained 2.9 percent to $46,300/46,400 from
$45,010 as speculators bought back short positions -- bets on
lower prices -- ahead of the long holiday weekend in London.
Tin closed at $13,900, up $100, and zinc ended
at $3,640/3,650 up from $3,575 on Thursday.
Metal prices at 1641 GMT
Metal Last Net Change Pct Move
LME Cu 7240.00 240.00 +3.43
SHFE Cu* 61790.00 -1800.00 -2.83
LME Alum 2785.00 30.00 +1.09
SHFE Alu* 19780.00 -140.00 -0.70
COMEX Cu** 328.85 10.50 +3.30
LME Zinc 3651.00 76.00 +2.13
LME Nickel 46500.00 1490.00 +3.31
LME Lead 2210.00 100.00 +4.74
LME Tin 13900.00 100.00 +0.01
Change so far in 2007
Metal Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
LME Cu 7240.00 6330.00 +14.38
SHFE Cu* 61790.00 60080.00 +2.85
LME Alum 2785.00 2805.00 -0.71
SHFE Alu* 19780.00 20550.00 -3.75
COMEX Cu** 328.85 287.10 +14.54
LME Zinc 3651.00 4230.00 -13.69
LME Nickel 46500.00 33325.00 +39.53
LME Lead 2210.00 1670.00 +32.34
LME Tin 13900.00 11510.00 +20.76 * 3rd
contract months for SHFE copper and aluminium ** 1st contract
month for COMEX copper
(Additional reporting by Carole Vaporean in New York)
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