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Friday May 9, 4:30 PM

Emerging FX-Asian currencies recover but vulnerable

SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - The Korean won recovered from a 2-1/2-year low on Friday and other Asian currencies bounced back after sharp losses this week, but analysts warned any respite from high oil prices and position adjustments will be brief.

A combination of factors had driven the losses in Asia this week, including oil prices hitting a record above $124 per barrel, the U.S. dollar's broad rebound and pressure on market participants to trim their heavy exposures to Asia.

On top of that, the Chinese yuan's sharp fall in non-deliverable forwards on talk that growth concerns were forcing the authorities to slow the pace of yuan appreciation undermined the regional currencies.

On Friday, the won had recovered modestly to near 1,045 per dollar from the previous session's low of 1,049.9, which was its weakest since November 2005.

The ringgit rallied 0.9 percent, bouncing to 3.195 per dollar. The Philippine peso managed to rise 0.3 percent from Thursday's close of 42.61 per dollar.

"With the rise in commodity prices, the dollar will be supported for the moment," said a trader in Manila.

The trader said the force of the dollar's rebound pushed the peso to the weaker side of strong technical support at 42.50 this week.

"That level was easily broken and it seems they will try the next resistance at 42.75," he said.

MORE WEAKNESS IN STORE

Still, traders said dollar bids emerged in some local markets as it dipped. A trader in Kuala Lumpur said ringgit sales emerged once the currency moved near 3.1950 per dollar.

The Singapore dollar rallied more than a cent from Thursday's one-month low of 1.38 per U.S. dollar, but then retreated from a high of 1.3677.

"Short covering has eased after the sharp moves in the past three days, and dollar/Asia is biased lower in the near term," said Han-Sia Yeo, a strategist at Bank Of America.

But Yeo said the Asian currencies were likely to settle into slightly weaker ranges against the dollar for a while, given the extent of long positions in the regional units.

Elsewhere, the Indonesian rupiah recovered from Thursday's seven-week low of 9,271 per dollar but showed little reaction to hawkish comments from the central bank.

Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said on Friday the country would struggle to bring 2008 inflation below 9 percent even if subsidised fuel prices were not raised to ease pressure on government finances.

The deputy governor also said rate rises of even up to 150 basis points would not hurt loan growth.

 The central bank raised its one-month policy rate this week
to 8.25 percent, the first increase in two years, after
inflation hit a 19-month high in April. CURRENCIES VS U.S.
DOLLAR  Change on the day at   0822 GMT
 Currency    Latest bid   Previous day    Pct Move
 Japan yen       103.12         103.89       +0.75
 Sing dlr        1.3687         1.3774       +0.64
 Taiwan dlr      30.639         30.824       +0.60
 Korean won     1041.40        1045.25       +0.37
 Baht             31.93          31.89       -0.11
 Peso             42.49          42.61       +0.28
 Rupiah         9237.00        9269.00       +0.35
 Rupee            41.48          41.76       +0.69
 Ringgit         3.1955         3.2200       +0.77
 Yuan            6.9893         7.0000       +0.15
 Change so far in 2007
 Currency    Latest bid  End prev year    Pct Move
 Japan yen       103.12         119.01      +15.41
 Sing dlr        1.3687         1.5337      +12.06
 Taiwan dlr      30.639         32.585       +6.35
 Korean won     1041.40         929.50      -10.75
 Baht             31.93          36.08      +13.01
 Peso             42.49          49.03      +15.39
 Rupiah         9237.00        8988.00       -2.70
 Rupee            41.48          44.26       +6.70
 Ringgit         3.1955         3.5270      +10.37
 Yuan            6.9893         7.8051      +11.67 (Reporting
by Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

 


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