Tuesday May 13, 4:19 PM
Emerging FX-Asia mostly down; peso, baht at multi-month lows
SINGAPORE, May 13 (Reuters) - Most Asian currencies fell on
Tuesday amid jitters about a global slowdown and high oil
prices, with the Philippine peso and Thai baht hitting
multi-month lows.
The peso fell as far as 42.755 per dollar, down
about a quarter of a percent to its weakest level since late
November.
One trader in Manila said the peso was trading in line with
other Asian currencies against a firmer dollar.
But he added: "There is potential for further peso weakness
as inflation concerns are still prevalent."
The peso, Asia's top performer in 2007 with a 19 percent
gain versus the dollar, has been weighed down in recent months
by concerns about slowing exports and rising oil prices.
It has lost 3 percent versus the dollar so far this year.
The South Korean won briefly hit 1,047.6 per dollar,
down almost 0.6 percent from late Asian trade on Friday.
Markets in South Korea were closed on Monday for a holiday.
Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING, said he believed
the won's decline -- amounting to just over 10 percent versus
the dollar so far this year -- was overdone.
But he cautioned that investors should not be betting on a
won recovery yet because the rhetoric from policy makers seemed
to suggest they wanted to see the won weaker.
"Getting in the way of it seems like a dangerous strategy,"
he said.
The Thai Baht slipped as far as 32.28 per dollar,
down about 0.4 percent from late Asian trade on Monday to its
weakest level since Feb. 25.
Analysts believe the won and the peso, along with the
Indian rupee, are particularly vulnerable to rising
global oil prices and high risk aversion among investors in the
credit crisis.
"We would favour the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian
ringgit as relative outperformers," said Emmanuel Ng, a
currency strategist at OCBC Bank.
SELECTIVE BETS
Analysts believe the Singapore dollar, ringgit and Chinese yuan are more resilient to the
global woes as they are backed by trade surpluses and an
official stance favouring stronger currencies to control
inflation.
The Singapore dollar rose as far as 1.3637 to the U.S.
dollar, up about 0.4 percent from late Asian trade on Monday.
Traders said its near-term outlook would hinge on the U.S.
dollar, which held steady against the Japanese yen and
euro on Tuesday.
"There was some unwinding last week so it should not be as
volatile now, but players might start loading positions (in the
Singapore dollar) again, thinking that the whole episode is
over," said a Singapore-based trader, referring to the U.S.
dollar's recent rally.
Many investors expect the Singapore dollar to rise further,
on top of a gain of 5.2 percent so far this year.
The ringgit steadied near 3.21 per dollar after going as
high as 3.199.
The yuan fell as far as 6.9949 per dollar, down a tenth of
a percent from Monday's close, after a strong earthquake on
Monday in the southwestern province of Sichuan, where the death
toll has risen to around 10,000.
But analysts still expect further yuan gains as Beijing
tries to tame inflation, which accelerated to 8.5 percent in
April.
Analysts at UBS maintained their forecast that the yuan
would rise to 6.58 per dollar by the end of 2008.
"We think this week's data-set could signal to the market
that the policy of allowing the yuan to appreciate by around 10
percent per annum is still valid despite the static renminbi
(yuan) in April," they said in a note.
On Monday China posted a solid trade surplus of $16.7
billion for April, despite the U.S. economic slowdown.
Also on Monday, China's central bank raised banks' reserve
requirements for the fourth time this year to mop up
liquidity.
CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
Change on the day at 0747 GMT
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 103.64 103.75 +0.11
Sing dlr 1.3671 1.3694 +0.17
Taiwan dlr 30.870 30.850 -0.06
Korean won 1042.10 1041.40 -0.07
Baht 32.22 32.15 -0.22
Peso 42.65 42.66 +0.01
Rupiah 9244.00 9250.00 +0.06
Rupee 42.10 42.05 -0.13
Ringgit 3.2140 3.2150 +0.03
Yuan 6.9870 6.9882 +0.02
Change so far in 2008
Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
Japan yen 103.64 111.33 +7.42
Sing dlr 1.3671 1.4382 +5.20
Taiwan dlr 30.870 32.443 +5.10
Korean won 1042.10 935.70 -10.21
Baht 32.22 33.68 +4.53
Peso 42.65 41.28 -3.21
Rupiah 9244.00 9390.00 +1.58
Rupee 42.10 39.41 -6.39
Ringgit 3.2140 3.3050 +2.83
Yuan 6.9870 7.3041 +4.54
(Editing by Alan Raybould)
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