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Tuesday May 13, 4:19 PM

Emerging FX-Asia mostly down; peso, baht at multi-month lows

SINGAPORE, May 13 (Reuters) - Most Asian currencies fell on Tuesday amid jitters about a global slowdown and high oil prices, with the Philippine peso and Thai baht hitting multi-month lows.

The peso fell as far as 42.755 per dollar, down about a quarter of a percent to its weakest level since late November.

One trader in Manila said the peso was trading in line with other Asian currencies against a firmer dollar.

But he added: "There is potential for further peso weakness as inflation concerns are still prevalent."

The peso, Asia's top performer in 2007 with a 19 percent gain versus the dollar, has been weighed down in recent months by concerns about slowing exports and rising oil prices.

It has lost 3 percent versus the dollar so far this year.

The South Korean won briefly hit 1,047.6 per dollar, down almost 0.6 percent from late Asian trade on Friday.

Markets in South Korea were closed on Monday for a holiday.

Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING, said he believed the won's decline -- amounting to just over 10 percent versus the dollar so far this year -- was overdone.

But he cautioned that investors should not be betting on a won recovery yet because the rhetoric from policy makers seemed to suggest they wanted to see the won weaker.

"Getting in the way of it seems like a dangerous strategy," he said.

The Thai Baht slipped as far as 32.28 per dollar, down about 0.4 percent from late Asian trade on Monday to its weakest level since Feb. 25.

Analysts believe the won and the peso, along with the Indian rupee, are particularly vulnerable to rising global oil prices and high risk aversion among investors in the credit crisis.

"We would favour the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit as relative outperformers," said Emmanuel Ng, a currency strategist at OCBC Bank.

SELECTIVE BETS

Analysts believe the Singapore dollar, ringgit and Chinese yuan are more resilient to the global woes as they are backed by trade surpluses and an official stance favouring stronger currencies to control inflation.

The Singapore dollar rose as far as 1.3637 to the U.S. dollar, up about 0.4 percent from late Asian trade on Monday.

Traders said its near-term outlook would hinge on the U.S. dollar, which held steady against the Japanese yen and euro on Tuesday.

"There was some unwinding last week so it should not be as volatile now, but players might start loading positions (in the Singapore dollar) again, thinking that the whole episode is over," said a Singapore-based trader, referring to the U.S. dollar's recent rally.

Many investors expect the Singapore dollar to rise further, on top of a gain of 5.2 percent so far this year.

The ringgit steadied near 3.21 per dollar after going as high as 3.199.

The yuan fell as far as 6.9949 per dollar, down a tenth of a percent from Monday's close, after a strong earthquake on Monday in the southwestern province of Sichuan, where the death toll has risen to around 10,000.

But analysts still expect further yuan gains as Beijing tries to tame inflation, which accelerated to 8.5 percent in April.

Analysts at UBS maintained their forecast that the yuan would rise to 6.58 per dollar by the end of 2008.

"We think this week's data-set could signal to the market that the policy of allowing the yuan to appreciate by around 10 percent per annum is still valid despite the static renminbi (yuan) in April," they said in a note.

On Monday China posted a solid trade surplus of $16.7 billion for April, despite the U.S. economic slowdown.

 Also on Monday, China's central bank raised banks' reserve
requirements for the fourth time this year to mop up
liquidity.
 CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
 Change on the day at  0747 GMT
 Currency    Latest bid   Previous day    Pct Move
 Japan yen       103.64         103.75       +0.11
 Sing dlr        1.3671         1.3694       +0.17
 Taiwan dlr      30.870         30.850       -0.06
 Korean won     1042.10        1041.40       -0.07
 Baht             32.22          32.15       -0.22
 Peso             42.65          42.66       +0.01
 Rupiah         9244.00        9250.00       +0.06
 Rupee            42.10          42.05       -0.13
 Ringgit         3.2140         3.2150       +0.03
 Yuan            6.9870         6.9882       +0.02
 Change so far in 2008
 Currency    Latest bid  End prev year    Pct Move
 Japan yen       103.64         111.33       +7.42
 Sing dlr        1.3671         1.4382       +5.20
 Taiwan dlr      30.870         32.443       +5.10
 Korean won     1042.10         935.70      -10.21
 Baht             32.22          33.68       +4.53
 Peso             42.65          41.28       -3.21
 Rupiah         9244.00        9390.00       +1.58
 Rupee            42.10          39.41       -6.39
 Ringgit         3.2140         3.3050       +2.83
 Yuan            6.9870         7.3041       +4.54
 (Editing by Alan Raybould)

 


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