PREVIEW-Indonesia Q4 GDP growth seen up on exports, spending
WHAT: Q4 GDP, 2009 GDP
WHEN: Feb. 10, 0400 GMT
REUTERS FORECAST:
Median growth 4.97 pct y/y versus 4.2 pct in Q3. Forecast range of 12 analysts polled was between 4.4 pct and 5.98 pct. Median contraction of 3.0 pct seen on q/q basis before seasonal adjustments versus growth of 3.9 pct in Q3, with a range of minus 2.02 pct to minus 3.65 pct.
Median 4.4 pct growth in 2009 versus 6.1 pct in 2008, with a range of 4.3 pct to 4.69 pct.
FACTORS TO WATCH:
Annual growth was forecast to hit 4.97 percent, the highest since Q4 2008, in the fourth quarter. Growth was expected to have been broad-based, as low interest rates boosted consumer spending and a recovery in the global economy strengthened demand for Indonesia's commodities such as palm oil and rubber.
Car sales rose 21 percent in December 2009 from a year ago. Still, analysts said the sales figures remained below pre-crisis levels, suggesting the industry, like some other manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, still has excess capacity.
Investment probably accelerated in the final quarter of the year. A delayed rainy season and aggressive campaign by commercial banks in offering property loans also helped to boost property construction as indicated by strong cement sales.
MARKET IMPACT:
The backward-looking GDP figures, due to be released more than a month after the end of the fourth quarter, are likely to have limited market impact especially if they are broadly in line with market expectations.
But if GDP is much lower than expected -- possibly reflecting excess capacity in the automotive and textiles industries which face stiff competition from Chinese imports -- this could strengthen the case for the central bank to keep interest rates on hold for the rest of this year, which would be positive for the bond market.
On the other hand an overshoot, coupled with expected monetary tightening in other countries, could strengthen the view that the central bank will start raising rates by the end of the second quarter. Any impact, however, would be limited on the bond market given expectations of further capital inflows as investors seek high-yielding debt paper.
Indonesia statistics bureau website www.bps.go.id
Following are results of the poll :
Q4 Y/Y Q4 Q/Q 2009 Action Economics
4.5 -3 4.3 BCA 5.5 -2.5 4.5 Bahana 4.7 -3.2 4.34 Bank Danamon 5.07 N/A 4.44 IDEAglobal 4.4 N/A 4.3 Samuel Securities 5.3 -3.65 4.57 BII
4.93 -2.99 4.41 OCBC
4.5 -3.52 4.3 Danareksa 5.98 -2.02 4.69 HSBC 4.7 -3.2 4.3 Standard Chartered Bank 5.0 -2.9
4.4 Mandiri Sekuritas 5.12 -2.81 N/A ----------------------------------------------------- MEDIAN
4.97 -3.0 4.4 (Reporting by Gde Anugrah Arka; Editing by Sara Webb/Ruth Pitchford)